photo: Ukrainska Pravda on Telegram/Darnytsia locomotive depot, destroyed by Russian attack
Russia’s war against Ukraine is reshaping grain logistics across the Black Sea region and pushing cargo onto rail.
Russia’s continued attacks on Ukrainian ports, railways and logistics are forcing Kyiv to move more grain through alternative land routes. At the same time, Ukrainian strikes on Russian infrastructure in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov are pushing Moscow to redirect part of its own grain exports towards the Baltic.
Russia exported 46.3 million tonnes of grain through ports in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov between July 2025 and June 2026, around 90% of its total seaborne grain exports, while Russian Baltic ports handled only about one million tonnes. That balance is now starting to change. Reuters reported that requests for rail shipments of grain to Russia’s Baltic ports had reached five million tonnes by 18 August, mostly for delivery in August and September.
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Russia Looks North as Ukraine Targets Its Black Sea Infrastructure
As Ukraine continues to defend itself against Russia’s invasion, Ukrainian drone attacks have increasingly reached Russian ports, vessels and other infrastructure linked to Moscow’s economy and war effort, making grain exporters search for routes less exposed to Ukrainian attacks.
Russian Baltic ports can handle an estimated seven million tonnes of grain per year. Exporters are also looking at ports in Latvia and potentially Estonia. Russian grain continued to move through the Baltic states even after Moscow’s relations with its EU and NATO neighbours deteriorated following the invasion of Ukraine.
Analysts cited by Reuters estimate that five to six million tonnes of Russian grain could pass through the Baltic states this season. If Estonian ports become available, this figure could rise to ten million tonnes, but even with Baltic terminals, other Russian ports and land routes combined, only around half of the usual southern export volumes could be replaced, according to the Russian Grain Union, cited by Reuters.
Ukraine’s Export Routes Face a Different Pressure
Repeated Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports and logistics network have kept the country’s exports moving for the past few months, and the pressure has intensified again in recent days. Reuters reports that on 1 September, Russia struck port and export infrastructure in the Odesa region and damaged a border crossing with Romania.
A day later, another Russian missile and drone attack hit Odesa, damaging energy infrastructure and a 24-storey residential building. Eight people, including a child, were injured. Kyiv was also attacked for a seventh consecutive day.
On 1 September alone, Russian attacks killed 12 people in Kyiv and the surrounding region, according to The Guardian. Russia has increased its use of missiles and drones against Ukrainian cities in recent months, targeting homes and industrial, transport and energy infrastructure.
The railway has also been directly hit. TSN reports that Russian ballistic missile struck the Darnytsia locomotive depot in Kyiv on 1 September, killing seven people, including six Ukrzaliznytsia employees. The railway operator said the depot and other railway facilities had been deliberately targeted. One more employee was injured.
The attack followed a series of strikes on Ukrainian logistics. On 27 August, Russia hit ports, industrial sites and retail distribution facilities across the country with missiles and drones. A day later, Ukraine’s agriculture minister said Russian attacks had destroyed or damaged around 90% of the food logistics infrastructure used by major retailers, according to The Kyiv Independent.
Moldova and Rail Could Offer Another Route to Constanța
RAILTARGET recently reported that Ukraine and Moldova are discussing a new railway corridor that could carry Ukrainian grain through Moldova to the Romanian port of Constanța. Kyiv has asked Moldova for a 50% reduction in the standard rail tariff, while Chișinău is looking for guarantees that sufficient cargo volumes will use the route.
Former Moldovan Railways head Oleg Tofilat estimates that the corridor could handle up to 4.5 million tonnes of grain per year. Ukraine believes that would be enough to cover around a tenth of its grain exports. Reuters reported that the talks are directly linked to growing disruption at Ukraine’s Black Sea ports caused by Russian attacks.
By the end of August, around 80 vessels were waiting to reach the Ukrainian ports of Reni and Izmail through the Sulina Canal. Frequent air-raid alerts have repeatedly interrupted port operations, while Ukrzaliznytsia estimates it can move around 500,000 tonnes of grain per month towards the Danube ports.
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More Grain Wagons Cross Ukraine’s Western Borders
Rail traffic is also increasing towards Ukraine’s western neighbours. According to Rail.Insider, average grain wagon handovers at the Ukrainian-Slovak border rose by 23.5 wagons per day in August, 40.4 wagons daily. Volumes toward Poland rose from 33.4 to 47 wagons per day and traffic towards Hungary increased from 38.9 to 44.7 wagons per day.