photo: Valsts kanceleja/State Chancellery / Flickr/Illustrative photo
The Rail Baltica project is running behind schedule, and the EU is changing the construction timetable. Costs are rising, as is tension over the co-financing of high-speed rail in Central Europe.
The ambitious plan to build by 2025 modern rail infrastructure connecting the Baltic states (Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia) with Poland has fallen by the wayside. There are numerous reasons for the delay — some of which we have already reported on at RAILTARGET.
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Rail Baltica and HSR Will Compete for European Grants
Rail Baltica grappled with increases in construction costs, land-acquisition costs and insufficiently aligned financing from the EU and Member States. Experts also pointed out that the project lacked effective management from the outset, there was a lack of international and European coordination, a shortage of qualified personnel, and a major problem was the helplessness and non-transparency of the actions of public-administration institutions. The pace of preparatory work and construction was slowest in Latvia. All Baltic states now declare that they have managed to overcome a large part of the difficulties.
For the planned Central European HSR network, the delay creates additional unplanned competition in the contest for co-financing from European funds for the TEN-T network (CEF III). The additional funding claims announced by Rail Baltica’s investors may, in effect, further increase the competition and struggle for co-financing of rail projects in Europe. To Spain and Portugal, Italy and Austria, the Baltic states are thus adding their argument that "projects already under way must be completed first" — pressure on the EU budget will be enormous in the next seven-year financial period.
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Rail Baltica Will Have to Wait for the Second Track
The European Commission has now been forced to adjust the Rail Baltica construction timetable. The line is to be completed by 2030, but for the most part only as single-track. However, it will already be electrified and equipped with ERTMS. The missing second track and passing loops are to be completed only in subsequent years, from EU funds in later budgetary perspectives.
"Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland should make every effort to meet the target deadline of 2030 for the core network. In view of the technical and financial challenges associated with the Rail Baltica project, however, this project will not be completed before the end of 2030," states European Commission Implementing Decision 2025/1332 of 9 July this year. The document recommends prioritising the construction of a single-track line linking Tallinn in Estonia with Kaunas in Lithuania, which the line reached as early as 2015. The embankment and engineering structures are to be immediately adapted for the construction of the second track in the second phase. The number and density of turnouts is to ensure sufficient capacity in the transitional phase.
New Rail Baltica Construction Timetable in the Baltics and Poland
The new timetable for the eight sections into which the route has been divided in the three Baltic states and in Poland foresees completion of the land-acquisition phase (where the investor has not yet completed this phase) no later than the end of 2026. Exceptions are the section between the Estonian–Latvian border and Salaspils, where this deadline has been extended by half a year, and the Kaunas–Vilnius branch, which the European Commission has postponed by one year. Between Tallinn and Pärnu, construction of the earthworks and substructure is to begin this year.
Further towards the Latvian border, all design work should be completed by the end of 2026, while at the same time construction should begin and "sufficient progress" be achieved on sections running below ground level. On both of the above sections, the construction of the track superstructure and infrastructure should be completed by December 2028. For the section on Latvian territory between the Estonian border and Salaspils, the deadlines are similar to those for the section between Pärnu and the border, but one additional year is planned for construction works. Between Salaspils and the Lithuanian border, design is to be completed by the end of this year and construction of the subgrade begun. The entire infrastructure should be finished by mid-2029.
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On Lithuanian territory (the first section from the Latvian border to Panevėžys), the deadline has been extended for design work and construction of the rail substructure. The final deadline is now set for 31 December 2027. Construction of the track superstructure and railway infrastructure is to be completed by mid-2029. On the Panevėžys–Kaunas section, construction is to start by the end of this year, with completion of the substructure due by the end of 2028 and of the entire superstructure by mid-2029.
In addition, construction of the standard-gauge railway from the Polish border to Marijampolė is to be completed by the end of 2028, and on the Marijampolė–Kaunas section and the branch line to the capital Vilnius by the end of 2029. Poland, where there have also been a number of delays on its sections, has been tasked by the European Commission with modernising the Białystok–Ełk section by 31 December 2029, which the investor PKP PLK is currently confirming in the timetable. The tender procedure for this investment is under way. Poland has been given one year longer for the rebuilding of the Ełk section to the Lithuanian border, namely until December 2030.
Rail Baltica: Electrification, ERTMS and Completion by 2030
All sections in Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are to have designs for electrification ready by the end of 2027; in mid-2028, the projects for the track-control subsystem are to be completed, so that work on both of these subsystems can begin already in the first quarter of 2027.
By 31 December 2030, the railway infrastructure is to be completed as a combination of single- and double-track railway lines on an embankment for a double-track line, intended for mixed traffic, suitable at least for freight trains 740 m in length, and the entire infrastructure is to be electrified. At that time, the ERTMS system is also to be in operation. Dynamic testing of the new line is to begin in 2030. For the definitive completion of Rail Baltica, the European Commission has set no precise deadline, because this apparently is not even possible.
Theoretically, the European Commission should impose joint financial sanctions on all three states in 2030. With the adjusted timetable, this does not seem likely. Nevertheless, the further construction process with the revised timetable will proceed under the weight of a "final warning". In principle, all three EU Member States are exercising the right to finance the project at a maximum rate of 85% (combining financing from the CEF and cohesion funds allocated to the individual states). Total costs were estimated at EUR 15 billion.
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Rail Baltica: Latvia Reports Delays, Estonia Prepares New Trains
Deputy Andris Kulbergs, Chairman of the Latvian Parliament’s Investigatory Committee for the Rail Baltica project, informed Estonian deputies on 13 May that Latvia would be able to complete its part of the project only in 2035. Kulbergs cited serious financing problems as the reason for failing to meet the 2030 deadline for the Latvian section of the international railway project.
The tragic lack of coordination and the disappointment were captured by Estonian MP Anastassia Kovalenko-Kõlvart, Chair of the Parliamentary Committee for Combating Corruption. She expressed dissatisfaction with government oversight of the project, its financing and its uncertain future. "We are basically building railways worth several billion and ordering trains worth EUR 70 million, which will run from Tallinn to the Latvian border, where they will end because it will not go further. In addition, EUR 50 million is spent each year on oversight of all this," she told the magazine Brussels Signals. Her words were confirmed by Estonia’s Minister of Infrastructure Kuldar Leis: "If Latvia really fails to keep pace, we will operate Rail Baltica on our section only domestically."
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Estonia is already preparing a tender for trains for Rail Baltica. The state-owned railway company Elron has announced a plan to procure six electric trains for Rail Baltica. It concluded market consultations with potential suppliers on 25 April and has already launched the tender. The contract with the manufacturer is scheduled to be signed in December. The trains are to reach speeds of up to 200 km/h and accommodate 200 passengers. They should appear on the line in December 2030.