Virgin vs. Eurostar: Cracks Appear in a 30-Year Monopoly on the Channel Tunnel

The Channel Tunnel is no longer Eurostar’s playground. With Virgin and others lining up to enter the market, cross-border rail travel is poised for its first real shake-up in decades—and regulators are finally on board.

Virgin Group is ready to shake up the cross-Channel rail market, announcing that "no more major hurdles" stand in the way of launching passenger services between the UK and mainland Europe. The move comes after the UK’s rail regulator, the Office of Rail and Road (ORR), concluded that space could be made available at Eurostar’s Temple Mills depot in London—previously seen as a major barrier to entry for new operators.

A Virgin spokesperson told The Guardian, "Finally a green signal for competition." The Temple Mills facility, located in north-east London, is currently the only UK depot capable of maintaining European-style high-speed trains, making it essential for cross-Channel operators. Virgin had long argued that the claimed lack of capacity at the site was being used to block market access. The ORR’s independent report states that while infrastructure adjustments would be needed, Eurostar’s depot "would be able, if required, to accommodate additional trains" — a ruling that Virgin sees as the final green light to proceed.

Cross-Channel Train Competition: Virgin, Evolyn, and Gemini Enter the Scene

With this regulatory hurdle cleared, Virgin is moving closer to offering services between London and Paris, Brussels, and Amsterdam. The company, which previously operated domestic UK routes from 1997 to 2019, is reportedly raising GBP 700 million to support the launch of its cross-border rail services, according to The Independent.

But Virgin isn’t alone. Spanish startup Evolyn and UK-based Gemini Trains, chaired by Labour peer Lord Tony Berkeley, are also vying for depot access to launch their own Channel Tunnel services. Evolyn initially announced plans in 2023 for a fleet of 12 Avelia trains to compete directly with Eurostar. Gemini, meanwhile, has welcomed the ORR decision, noting via The Sun that the process now opens up "available capacity at Temple Mills International depot."

"We look forward to working with [the ORR] as they use their duties to allocate this capacity," said Andrew Meaney, an adviser to Gemini Trains, as quoted in The Sun.

Eurostar Expansion Plans: New Trains and Growing Demand

Despite mounting competition, Eurostar is planning to defend its dominant position. According to Railvolution, the company will expand its fleet by up to 50 new trains—a 30% increase supporting ambitions to serve 30 million passengers annually by 2030.

Eurostar CEO Gwendoline Cazenave said that this investment is part of a broader strategy to make Eurostar the "backbone of sustainable travel in Europe." The new trains will supplement the current fleet of 51 units, including 17 e320 Velaros. The first units of the expanded fleet are expected to enter service in the early 2030s, with the design focusing on customer comfort, energy efficiency, and accessibility. The Guardian reports that Eurostar has also successfully refinanced its debt, securing a EUR 650 million Green Term Loan, aligned with the EU’s taxonomy for climate mitigation.

Channel Tunnel Rail Services: Passenger Demand and Regulatory Support

Industry analysts believe this is a turning point for cross-border passenger rail. The Independent noted that the Channel Tunnel’s potential remains largely unused, with Eurostar currently the only operator since its launch in 1994. Ben Plowden, CEO of the Campaign for Better Transport, told The Guardian, “Much of the great potential of the Channel tunnel is currently untapped … we are very glad that the reality of new services is closer than ever.”

🤞 Plans by operators including Sir Richard Branson’s Virgin Group to launch new cross-channel rail services to rival Eurostar have been given a boost after UK’s rail regulator said there was space for rivals to access the group’s east London train depot. //t.co/OvREMwYcJj

— alain servais (@aservais1) April 1, 2025

According to the charity’s research, international rail demand from the UK could more than double by 2040, driven by growing public interest in low-emission alternatives to flying. The ORR’s findings also align with the broader policy push to increase modal shift from air to rail in the name of sustainability. And with Great British Railways set to take over infrastructure functions from Network Rail, the UK rail landscape is undergoing structural transformation just as the cross-Channel competition intensifies.

Operational and Infrastructure Challenges Still Ahead

Despite the optimism, challenges remain. Eurostar warned that the ORR-commissioned report "confirms" the depot is nearly full, and that creating space for more operators would require disruption and investment. The company stressed that the proposed changes "would not be enough to accommodate the stated ambitions of any single operator." Virgin, however, seems confident. In statements to The Independent and The Sun, the company reiterated that it is "ready to take up the challenge", backed by decades of experience and strong consumer recognition. An announcement on its launch timeline is expected soon.

Meanwhile, Evolyn’s plans appear delayed, as The Sun reported, though the company remains active. The French and Spanish high-speed rail markets have recently become more competitive with new entrants, and the UK-Europe corridor appears to be next.

Outlook: A More Competitive and Connected European Rail Market

Whether Virgin or its rivals succeed in launching by the end of the decade, the ORR decision means a major regulatory shift. For the first time in over 30 years, Eurostar’s hold on the Channel Tunnel may be weakening, and passengers could benefit from lower fares, more choices, and better service.

As The Guardian noted, this change comes just as Network Rail CEO Andrew Haines prepares to step down, amid broader industry restructuring under the forthcoming UK Railways Bill. The legislation aims to streamline planning and infrastructure under Great British Railways, potentially easing coordination for new entrants.

Sources: The Guardian; The Independent; The Sun; Railvolution