photo: Huib Smit / Flickr/Eurostar E320 4007/4008
Eurostar’s monopoly isn’t just facing a shake-up—it’s unravelling. With Virgin already eyeing the Channel Tunnel, Italy’s Ferrovie dello Stato has jumped into the game.
The Channel Tunnel’s high-speed monopoly continues facing disruption. Italy’s state-owned railway group Ferrovie dello Stato (FS) has announced its ambition to launch a new London–Paris high-speed rail service by 2029, directly challenging Eurostar’s long-standing dominance. According to Reuters, the EUR 1 billion project aligns with FS’s wider strategy to expand international operations and bring more competitive, sustainable alternatives to air travel.
"More competition will create a more efficient and customer-oriented industry," said FS CEO Stefano Antonio Donnarumma. The planned service, based on Italy’s Frecciarossa (Red Arrow) trains, is still undergoing technical assessments, but advanced planning is already underway for infrastructure at London’s St. Pancras terminal.
Virgin Signals Entry Following UK Regulator’s Green Light
The Italian newcomer joins Virgin Group, which has also declared its intent to launch cross-Channel services. As previously reported by RAILTARGET, Virgin’s path was cleared by the Office of Rail and Road (ORR), which concluded that Eurostar’s Temple Mills depot in London has the capacity to host additional operators. This ruling removes what had been viewed as the last major regulatory hurdle.
A Virgin spokesperson told The Guardian: "Finally a green signal for competition." The company, which previously operated UK rail services from 1997 to 2019, is reportedly raising GBP 700 million to support the new international venture. Initial routes are expected to include London–Paris, Brussels, and Amsterdam.
However, Virgin and FS aren’t alone. Spanish startup Evolyn and UK-based Gemini Trains are also seeking to enter the market. Evolyn had already announced its acquisition of 12 Avelia high-speed trains in 2023 and has now signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with FS to explore potential joint ventures, as Reuters reports. Meanwhile, Gemini Trains, led by Labour peer Lord Tony Berkeley, has welcomed the ORR’s decision. Speaking to The Sun, Gemini adviser Andrew Meaney stated, "We look forward to working with [the ORR] as they use their duties to allocate this capacity."
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Falling Prices and Tripling Demand Predicted
As noted by The Times, the opening of the market is expected to reduce ticket prices on cross-Channel routes by up to 30%. With Eurostar having been the sole operator since the Channel Tunnel’s opening in 1994, competition is widely seen as overdue. A study commissioned by London St Pancras Highspeed predicts international passenger volumes could triple to 35 million annually within 15 years, as more people opt for rail over short-haul flights due to environmental concerns and improved convenience.
Eurostar Expands Fleet to Defend Market Share
In response to growing competition, Eurostar is taking action to bolster its presence. According to Railvolution, the company plans to expand its fleet by up to 50 new trains—a 30% increase aimed at serving 30 million passengers annually by 2030. This comes alongside a successful refinancing deal involving a EUR 650 million Green Term Loan, compliant with EU climate targets. Eurostar CEO Gwendoline Cazenave described the move as part of a broader strategy to position Eurostar as the "backbone of sustainable travel in Europe." The new fleet will prioritise comfort, energy efficiency, and digital accessibility, with the first trains entering service in the early 2030s.
Regulatory Shifts and Broader Infrastructure Reform
The UK’s rail infrastructure landscape is also undergoing structural change. As The Guardian notes, Network Rail is set to hand over responsibilities to Great British Railways as part of the upcoming UK Railways Bill, streamlining planning and making it easier for new entrants to coordinate services. Despite Eurostar’s warning that depot capacity remains tight and will require significant investment to accommodate more operators, the ORR's report states that space can be made available, provided necessary infrastructure adjustments are undertaken.
While competition promises to improve pricing and service quality, challenges remain. Eurostar has warned that the Temple Mills depot is nearly full, and any accommodation of rivals would require "disruption and investment." However, Virgin appears undeterred. In statements to The Independent and The Sun, the company reiterated that it is "ready to take up the challenge", citing its strong consumer recognition and past rail experience.
Evolyn’s plans may be somewhat delayed, as reported by The Sun, but the firm remains committed. The broader liberalisation trend across French and Spanish high-speed rail markets offers an encouraging precedent.
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Sources: Reuters; RAILTARGET; The Times; The Guardian; The Independent; The Sun; Railvolution