Ukraine Turns to Moldova for Grain Rail Route as Ports Come Under Russian Fire

Ukraine has secured a 50% discount on rail transit through Moldova until the end of 2026 as it looks for alternative routes to Romanian ports amid continued Russian attacks on Black Sea export infrastructure and disruptions to Danube and seaborne shipping routes. Chişinău wants the extra freight, but Moldovan farmers fear they will need the same wagons and railway capacity for their own harvest.

The new tariff regime has been in force since 10 August and applies to Ukrainian cargo transiting Moldova by rail. The Ukrainian government says it will remain in place until 31 December 2026.

For grain, the main idea is to move cargo through Moldova towards Romanian ports, including Constanța. Reuters reported on 10 August that Kyiv had asked for the 50% reduction while Moldova wanted guaranteed volumes in return. Two days later, Ukraine confirmed that the discount had been agreed.

Ukraine Secures a 50% Rail Transit Discount Through Moldova

The agreement is not limited to grain. Ukraine's Ministry for Recovery, Infrastructure and Transport says the preferential tariff covers Ukrainian cargo moving through Moldova and can support exports of grain, ore and other products, as well as imports. Cargo can continue towards Romanian ports, Moldovan ports on the Danube and the Ukrainian port of Reni.

The grain route has attracted most of the attention because Ukraine still sends more than 90% of its grain exports through seaports. Russian attacks on port infrastructure and civilian shipping have made those flows much less predictable. Reuters reported in early August that Ukraine had cut its 2026/27 grain export forecast from 43 million tonnes to 38–40 million tonnes.

The Moldovan route is a backup rather than a replacement for the Black Sea. Even the highest capacity estimate discussed so far would cover only around 10% of Ukrainian grain exports, according to Ukrainian estimates cited by Reuters.

Why Ukraine Needs the Moldova Rail Route Now

Pressure on Ukraine's southern export routes has increased again this summer. According to ZN,UA, on 13 August, a Russian attack damaged infrastructure at the Danube port of Izmail. Low water levels on the Danube were already making river transport more difficult. Reuters also reported that Ukrainian grain shipments during the first two weeks of August were 76% lower than a year earlier.

The Black Sea has faced the same problem. In July, Ukraine recorded 35 attacks on vessels in ports, 22 attacks on ships at sea and 67 strikes on port facilities, according to figures reported by Reuters. Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotskyi warned that rail, road and Danube routes together could replace only around half of the volumes normally handled by the Black Sea ports.

Moldova is not a completely new option. Ukrainian freight already moved through the country during the first years of the Russia's full-scale invasion, and railway links between the two countries were restored to open additional export routes. RAILTARGET reported on these railway connections in 2022.

Moldova Targets 600,000 Tonnes, Not 4.5 Million

The most widely reported number around the new corridor is 4.5 million tonnes per year. It is not the volume that Moldova and Ukraine have agreed to transport.

Former CFM head Oleg Tofilat told Reuters that a rail corridor through Moldova could have an annual capacity of around 4.5 million tonnes. After the tariff deal was announced, Moldova's Infrastructure and Regional Development Ministry gave a much smaller figure for the rest of 2026.

According to Radio Moldova, Chişinău wants to attract around 600,000 tonnes of Ukrainian cargo by the end of the year. The ministry explicitly described the 4.5 million tonnes as an estimate of possible annual corridor capacity, not an agreed shipment volume.

CFM will accept additional traffic according to available infrastructure, rolling stock, train schedules and demand from Moldovan exporters. The ministry says it will monitor the situation and adjust the mechanism if the new traffic begins to cause delays or pressure on domestic exports.

Moldova has also been investing in the railway needed to carry this traffic. According to moldovalive, in 2023, the EBRD approved a EUR 23 million loan and the EU added a EUR 20 million grant for a EUR 71 million rehabilitation programme on the North–South Rail Corridor. The work covers the Vălcineț–Bălți–Ungheni and Chișinău–Căinari sections.

The EBRD said at the time that one purpose of the project was to make it easier to move Ukrainian goods through Moldova towards the EU and ports including Constanța. RAILTARGET also covered the financing when it was announced.

Moldovan Farmers Fear Ukrainian Cargo Will Take Rail Capacity

The tariff deal has already caused concern among Moldovan farmers. The Forța Fermierilor association says agricultural producers were not consulted before the 50% discount was introduced. Farmers support the transit of Ukrainian grain but want guarantees that it will not reduce their own access to wagons and railway capacity during the harvest season.

According to figures cited by Radio Moldova, almost one third of Moldovan wheat exports in July moved by rail, which is why farmers fear that a large increase in Ukrainian transit could leave fewer wagons available for domestic exporters and increase transport costs.

They have also raised concerns about grain prices. Forța Fermierilor argues that Ukrainian cargo could put additional pressure on the Moldovan market if transit goods were diverted into domestic trade. The Moldovan infrastructure ministry says this will not happen: goods declared in transit do not enter the Moldovan market and are not treated as imports.

For CFM, additional Ukrainian traffic offers another source of revenue. Moldovan authorities estimate that the transit agreement could bring the state railway several million euros, even with the 50% tariff reduction.

Ukraine Raised Its Own Rail Tariffs Before the Moldova Discount

The timing creates another cost issue for Ukrainian exporters. Back in June, Reuters reported that Ukraine increased domestic rail freight tariffs by 30% in August to support Ukrzaliznytsia, which faces higher electricity, maintenance and wartime infrastructure costs. Reuters confirmed this month that Ukrainian industrial producers are now paying the higher freight rates.

When the increase was proposed in June, the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club estimated that it could add around USD 5–7 per tonne to agricultural logistics costs. Ukrzaliznytsia gave a lower estimate of about USD 3.6 per tonne for grain transported 750 km. Ten days after the domestic increase took effect, Moldova began applying its 50% transit discount.

That does not mean the Moldovan route has suddenly become 50% cheaper overall. The discount applies only to the Moldovan rail transit tariff. A full shipment to Constanța still includes transport inside Ukraine, the onward route towards Romania, wagon availability, border procedures, terminal handling and possible waiting time at the port.

At the same time, the route is part of a much larger system. The European Commission says the EU-Ukraine Solidarity Lanes carried around 20% of Ukrainian grain, oilseed and related exports in March 2026. Since 2022, the routes have handled about 98 million tonnes of Ukrainian agricultural exports.

At the volumes currently discussed, Moldova cannot replace Ukraine's Black Sea ports, but at least it can provide additional capacity when sea and Danube routes are disrupted.