Ukraine Warned to ‘Prepare for the Worst’ as Russia Targets Grain Export Routes

Russian attacks have severely disrupted Ukraine’s ports, threatening grain exports and other goods that are vital to the country’s economy. Kyiv is therefore looking for alternatives through Danube ports and rail, which could partly replace lost Black Sea capacity.

In the final days of August, Russia launched large-scale and systematic attacks on Ukrainian port infrastructure and a border crossing with Romania in the Black Sea region around Odesa. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told Reuters that the attacks deliberately damaged both the Romanian border crossing and export infrastructure.

Ukrainian security services said the strikes also targeted energy infrastructure. Ukrainian state energy company Naftogaz said on Tuesday that Russia had also attacked its Odesa power facility overnight with missiles and drones.

In recent months, Russia has significantly increased both the number and intensity of drone attacks on port infrastructure in Odesa and at the Danube ports of Reni and Izmail. The attacks have effectively blocked ports that under normal conditions handle 90% of Ukraine’s exports. The government in Kyiv is redirecting freight through smaller river ports on the Danube. Their capacity is lower, however, and increasing attention is now turning to rail freight towards Ukraine’s western border.

In any normal country, purchasing stolen goods is an act that entails legal liability. This applies, in particular, to grain stolen by Russia. Another vessel carrying such grain has arrived at a port in Israel and is preparing to unload. This is not – and cannot be – legitimate…

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) April 28, 2026

Ukraine Looks for Alternatives to Black Sea Ports

Ukraine’s nationwide agricultural lobby, the Agrarian Council, has urged transport companies not to accept contracts to or from Black Sea ports at least until December or January. "Build your logistics and trading strategy for the current season, and possibly the next one as well, on the assumption that the ports will remain closed. Transport companies and their customers should prepare for the worst-case scenarios," Reuters quoted the Agrarian Council document as saying.

According to Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture, smaller Danube river ports combined with rail freight can handle only around half of the country’s normal agricultural exports. Transport on these alternative routes is also up to USD 50 per tonne more expensive than the traditional route through the port of Odesa.

Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry additionally stated that the maritime route has been used as a continuous channel for weapons deliveries. According to the ministry, around 8,000 ships carrying military cargo passed through Odesa’s ports over three years, which it described as the main reason for attacks by the Russian armed forces.

Ukrainian state railway operator Ukrzaliznytsia said that even before the latest attacks it had increased deliveries of grain to the Danube ports for onward export. Russia then intensified attacks on ships sailing into and out of Odesa to such an extent that maritime traffic had to be suspended. The disruption affects not only Odesa, but also the ports of Chornomorsk and Pivdennyi.

Russian Attacks Block Ukrainian Grain Exports

Ukraine’s port infrastructure has been under attack since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. Since July this year, however, Russian forces have stepped up attacks on ships, significantly discouraging shipping companies from entering the area. "Today, their tactic is to track every ship entering or leaving Ukrainian ports," said Dmytro Barinov, President of the Ukrainian Port Association.

The export blockade has hit Ukraine at the worst possible time, during the peak of the grain harvest. Under normal conditions, the three ports export around six million tonnes of goods every month. About 60% consists of agricultural products, while the remaining 40% comes from Ukraine’s steel industry, which has also been severely affected. Ports in the Odesa region handle around 90% of the country’s grain shipments.

Since the beginning of August, Ukraine has exported only around 500,000 tonnes, according to Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotskyi, roughly one fifth of its potential. Because of the lack of available transport capacity, Agriculture Ministry officials have advised farmers to store their harvest.

The situation creates an exceptional opportunity for Ukrainian and European rail freight companies. Operators able to respond with sufficient wagon capacity could take on volumes that few had expected or planned for. At the same time, they could make a significant contribution to Ukraine’s financial stability and its resilience ahead of the coming winter. Ukrzaliznytsia, meanwhile, could once again demonstrate the strategic role and importance it has played throughout the war.