photo: Uwe Schwarzbach / Flickr/Illustrative photo
From 18.5% to 16.9% since 2005, rail’s share shrinks as road fills the gap. Stakeholders demand targeted backing now.
The Austrian expert organisation VCÖ, which deals with mobility and transport, recently conducted in Austria and Germany a representative survey in the transport and logistics sector, public-administration institutions and universities. The basic question of the survey was whether it is possible by 2030 to increase rail freight’s share of total transport to 34 to 40%, which is a target promoted by the Austrian and German governments in line with European ambitions. A total of 55% of respondents consider this goal unrealistic and another 22% even very unrealistic. Only 19% believe in the opposite trend and a mere 2% claim that it is very realistic. Almost all respondents (93%) agreed that further measures should be adopted to support rail freight, which points out the general powerlessness in the strategic approach to the railway.
Eurostat: Rail Cargo in the EU Declines, Roads Gain
The view into the past is relentless as well: only in the Netherlands, Germany, Switzerland, Italy, Croatia and Portugal did rail freight’s share of total transport performance increase between 2005 and 2023, according to Eurostat data. In the European Union as a whole, this share fell from 18.5% to 16.9%, which clearly shows how EU policies aimed at the desired goal of supporting the railway are failing. The most significant increase, at least in percentage points, was recorded by Portugal, where rail freight’s share rose from 9.2% in 2005 to 14.1% in 2023. Germany, Italy and Croatia recorded similar increases, from 18% to 20.6%, from 10% to 12% and from 20% to 22.7%. In Switzerland and the Netherlands the growth was marginal — in Switzerland it rose from 33.6% to 34.3% and in the Netherlands from 6% to 6.4%.
On the opposite side of the table are the three Baltic states, especially Estonia, where rail freight’s share fell from 80% to 20.4%. A catastrophic decline was also recorded by the other Baltic states, where the share fell in Latvia from 84.1% to 44% and in Lithuania from 73.6% to 39.1%. In Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic, rail freight’s share fell by roughly one third, while in Luxembourg it halved. Rail freight also lost popularity in all other European countries equipped with a railway network.
The data provided by Eurostat showed that rail freight is not the only mode recording a decline in volumes. For example, inland waterways recorded a decline in cargo volume in all European countries where this mode exists. The most significant drop was recorded in Bulgaria, where the volume fell from 30% to 17.9%, and in Luxembourg, where it fell from 13.1% to 6.9%. The volumes lost by rail freight and inland waterways were largely taken over by the road sector, which often offers cheaper, faster and more flexible solutions.
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The Environmentally Friendly Railway Needs Greater Support
Eurostat figures capture a long-term trend from 2005 to 2023, but they also suggest that the pessimistic scenario will continue into the next decade. There are a number of causes: rail infrastructure in many parts of Europe is still outdated, and although some countries are carrying out extensive rail modernisation, the investment projects themselves are causing new problems due to temporary capacity restrictions.
However, this trend is at odds with the proclaimed transport-sustainability policies proposed by the European Union. Modes considered more sustainable — rail and inland waterways — should be gaining volume at the expense of road transport. In reality, however, more and more freight vehicles are driving on EU roads, with all the environmental impacts and risks that entails.
The survey also showed that instead of measures to support the railway, attention should be focused on improving competitiveness vis-à-vis road freight; part of the respondents even want state interventions to reduce the attractiveness of freight by road. According to the survey, the main reason is insufficient cost transparency in the road sector, cited by 85% of respondents. Road freight benefits from tax relief on diesel, low tolls and the ease of rerouting road traffic during disruptions compared with the railway, which loses out to the road in logistical flexibility, longer transit times and insufficient infrastructure capacity.
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Rail versus Road: How Experts See It
One of the EU’s future main tools to support rail freight could be the greening-freight package, which includes the Combined Transport Directive, the European Capacity Management Regulation and the Weights and Dimensions Directive. However, the VCÖ survey showed a very heterogeneous view of these tools. Of the Combined Transport Directive, 71 experts expect opportunities, while for 48 the risks rather prevail. For the Capacity Regulation, 69 experts believe the positives predominate, whereas for 57 the regulation will have negative effects. For the forthcoming Weights and Dimensions Directive, probably the most controversial part of the greening-freight package, more experts emphasise risks (55) than positives (49).
The pessimistic results of the VCÖ survey must also be placed in the context of how our two neighbouring countries with a tradition of rail transport and with broad public, political and financial support for it look to the future. There is no miracle solution, and the transformation of the rail freight market in Europe will still be very painful.