UNIFE: Rail Demand Is Booming, but EU Suppliers Are Losing Market Access

The global rail market is expected to reach €266.8 billion by 2029–2031, according to the latest World Rail Market Study presented at InnoTrans 2026. But while demand is growing, European suppliers can now access only 56% of the global market, the lowest share recorded by the study in years.

The global rail industry is heading for another period of growth, but European suppliers are finding it increasingly difficult to compete for that business. At InnoTrans 2026, UNIFE Chair Martin Sion and Director General Enno Wiebe presented the 11th World Rail Market Study, which forecasts average annual growth of 3.2% through 2029–2031.

The study, prepared by Bain & Company for the European Rail Supply Industry Association (UNIFE), puts the current global rail supply market at around €221 billion for 2023–2025. By the end of the forecast period, that figure is expected to reach €266.8 billion.

EU Rail Suppliers Can Access Just 56% of the Global Market

According to the study, EU rail supply companies can currently access only 56% of the global rail market. That is down from 59% in the previous 2024 study and 61% in 2022. The decline becomes even clearer over a longer period. In the 2008 edition of the study, European suppliers could access around 70% of global rail markets.

UNIFE estimates that the gap between the total market and the part open to European suppliers now represents €97 billion in missed business opportunities every year.

"Strong global growth and full order books for the industry are very positive, however seeing global access for the European Rail Supply Industry decline for the third study in a row is concerning," said UNIFE Director General Enno Wiebe.

"While we have sought a more level-playing field and adherence to trade norms, we must stress how important European Commission initiatives like Global Gateway have become to keep developing new markets."

Global Rail Market Has Fully Recovered from the Pandemic

Despite the tougher trade environment, the underlying rail market has returned to strong growth. The study found that the global rail supply market grew by 4.6% annually between 2021–2023 and 2023–2025, recovering from the disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Europe is expected to remain one of the stronger regions over the coming years. Western European rail markets are forecast to grow by 3.7% per year, while Eastern Europe is expected to expand by 3.6% annually through 2031. One of the factors behind that growth is the continued liberalisation of European rail operations, which the study expects to create more activity and new rolling stock and infrastructure orders.

Asia-Pacific Remains the Largest Rail Market

Asia-Pacific is expected to remain the world’s largest rail market and grow by around 3.5% per year. China’s rail market is expected to slow compared with previous years, but that will be partly offset by growth elsewhere in the region. India in particular is expected to continue increasing investment in railway infrastructure, alongside other countries expanding or upgrading their networks.

North America is forecast to grow by 3.0% annually, while Latin America expects growth rate of all major regions of 5.5% per year, supported by a growing pipeline of urban rail, passenger and freight projects.

Africa and the Middle East are expected to grow more slowly, at around 1.2% annually, while the Commonwealth of Independent States is forecast at just 0.7%.

Trade Barriers Could Limit Europe’s Share of the Boom

The contrast between market growth and shrinking accessibility is one of the study’s central findings. Rail demand is increasing globally, but European companies are not automatically gaining access to those opportunities. Trade restrictions, localisation requirements and other barriers are increasingly shaping which suppliers can compete in individual markets.

UNIFE argues that European suppliers need stronger support in international markets, particularly as other regions use domestic industrial policies to favour local producers.

World Rail Market Study Covers 99% of Global Rail Traffic

The World Rail Market Study examines 66 countries, which together account for 99% of global rail traffic. It covers the full supply chain, including infrastructure, signalling and control systems, rolling stock, services and turnkey projects.

UNIFE Chair and Alstom CEO Martin Sion said the latest results show that the long-term fundamentals for rail remain strong:

"The World Rail Market Study confirms that demand for rail is strong and growing, as countries increasingly recognise the strategic role rail plays in supporting inclusive growth, connecting regions and strengthening resilient transport networks."

"As Chair of UNIFE, I am proud of the contribution the European Rail Supply Industry makes in meeting this demand. Together, we must continue to drive the innovation, technology and industrial excellence needed to unlock the full potential of rail and help shape the future of mobility."

_{Source: UNIFE Press Release}